Analysis of new data from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) shows passenger numbers are likely to have reached a “new normal”, says the global critical services and infrastructure consultancy who have over 40 years of experience in the rail sector.

Experts from Steer have analysed six years’ worth of data from the Origin-Destination Matrix, to understand the underlying trends in rail passenger demand and assess if the market for rail travel is likely to change further in the near future.​ Steer has published its findings in an online interactive summary.

The ORR’s Estimates of Station Usage 2024 data, produced by Steer for over a decade, revealed a total of 1.4 billion rail journeys in 2024 (1 Apr 2023 to 31 Mar 2024) – a 16% increase from 2023’s figures. The data is estimated from the number of entries and exits at each station across Great Britain, with estimates based primarily on data recorded for each ticket sale. Total journeys as derived from the ORR’s Estimates of Station Usage (1.4 billion) are lower than the journeys published in passenger rail usage (1.6 billion) as the latter takes into account the number of legs of a journey.

How does 2024’s growth fit into the bigger picture?

A closer look at growth rates by flow (which measures how passenger numbers vary between origin and destination stations) gives a clearer understanding of whether passenger demand has stabilised at a different level compared to pre-Covid patterns.

Following the lockdowns of 2020-21, 2021-23 flows recovered at significantly different rates, driven by various market responses to the pandemic and its cessation.

In 2024, we see a return to a more typical distribution of growth between origin and destination stations, with most flows close to average, and a similar pattern to that we saw before the pandemic.

Distribution of growth rates by flow, 2020-2024 (The railway period runs 1 Apr – 31 Mar)

What’s driving growth?

Journeys made within London drove much of the demand increase in 2024. The opening of the Elizabeth Line has contributed substantially to this recovery, says Steer, with the London Travelcard Area seeing a 21% year-on-year increase in journeys. Removing the London Travelcard Area reduces the year-on-year growth in rail demand to 12%. Pre-pandemic, growth in rail journeys year-on-year averaged 3%.

Elsewhere, shorter trips outside London and the South East to/from London market (historically dominated by commuting) appear to have plateaued at 80% and 79% of 2019 levels of demand, respectively – a clear indication of the lasting impacts of hybrid working.

2024 vs 2019 rail demand recovery by segment

Steer believes the findings underline the importance of targeted strategies to address evolved passenger needs.

Mark Brownie, Associate at Steer, said:

“Further analysis of the 1.4 billion journeys recorded this year demonstrate that rail demand is stabilising after several years of sharp fluctuations. While some passenger segments, like long-distance travel, are approaching full recovery, others, particularly commuter markets, are showing lasting shifts in behaviour. Our analysis suggests that this stabilised demand represents a ‘new normal’ for the GB rail sector, and organisations must adapt their future strategies to these patterns. Steer has produced an online interactive summary outlining our findings, demonstrating the evolution of markets which now underpin the passenger railway.”