Atoc: Britain’s rolling stock could grow by up to 18 per cent by 2019

Pippa Vine

May 23, 2012

Industry options for additional vehicles needed between 2014 and 2019 – Control Period 5 (CP5) – have been set out by the Association of Train Operating Companies (Atoc), laying the ground for a longer-term, more comprehensive cross-industry strategy scheduled to be completed in the autumn.

The document, which follows a discussion paper on rolling stock published by Atoc in December 2011, says the total fleet could grow by 11 to 18 per cent above the total fleet size expected by the end of CP4, and gives figures of between 13,601 and 14,512 by the end of CP5.

Significant, government-led new vehicle orders already in place for delivery in CP5 include around 2,100 to 2,900 vehicles for Crossrail, Thameslink and the Intercity Express Programme (IEP).

Franchising and commercial deals over the period are also likely to account for between 500 and 1,500 units, although these figures depend on franchising process decisions about levels of passenger growth and whether existing vehicles can continue in service. 

Michael Roberts, chief executive of Atoc said of the forecasts: ‘We hope they will support policy makers, suppliers and other parts of the government with the best available information about the possible size and nature of future rolling stock orders, and the potential to extend the life of sections of the existing fleet.’

Responding to Atoc’s publication of the overview, Jeremy Candfield, director general of the Railway Industry Association, described it as a welcome step in the right direction.

‘However,’ he added, ‘much more needs to be done to narrow the ranges in the forecasting before it allows suppliers to plan their businesses with confidence and reduce costs. We look forward to working with Atoc and other parties to develop the strategy further.’